Botev Vratsa II 2–0 Akademik Svishtov

Botev Vratsa II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Akademik Svishtov

3/19/2022

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 22Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Botev Vratsa II44%

×Draw24%

Akademik Svishtov32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Vratsa IIExpected goals in this matchAkademik Svishtov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.39

Botev Vratsa II

1.65

Akademik Svishtov

1.39

Botev Vratsa II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 104 away

1.61

creates per match

1.19

1.58

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II

1.61

Akademik Svishtov

1.19

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II

1.58

Akademik Svishtov

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Akademik Svishtov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw

68%

Botev Vratsa II or Akademik Svishtov

76%

Draw or Akademik Svishtov

56%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+

22%

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals

81%

Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals

49%

Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals

23%

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals

75%

Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals

40%

Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)

57%

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Akademik Svishtov away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Akademik Svishtov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.19 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more

44%

level

24%

Akademik Svishtov scores more

32%

Botev Vratsa II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Botev Vratsa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Botev Vratsa II 2–0 Akademik Svishtov

Botev Vratsa II beat Akademik Svishtov 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Lukovit.

Botev Vratsa II vs Akademik Svishtov — Third League - Northwest 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Third League - Northwest: Botev Vratsa II 2–0 Akademik Svishtov