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Akademik Svishtov vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
5/26/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 29Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Akademik Svishtov58%
×Draw22%
Botev Vratsa II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademik Svishtov
1.90
Botev Vratsa II
1.03

Akademik Svishtov creates 84% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 61 away

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov
1.98
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov
0.91
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw
80%
Akademik Svishtov or Botev Vratsa II
78%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
42%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
34%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
85%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
56%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
29%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
64%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
28%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
74%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.90

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more
58%
level
22%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
20%

Akademik Svishtov at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Akademik Svishtov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Akademik Svishtov 3–0 Botev Vratsa II

Akademik Svishtov beat Botev Vratsa II 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademik in Svištov.