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Botev Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali — First League 2018

Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
5/12/2026First LeagueFirst League · Conference League Group - 34Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Botev Plovdiv42%
×Draw28%
Arda Kardzhali30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv
1.27
Arda Kardzhali
1.04

Botev Plovdiv creates 22% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 120 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.36
Arda Kardzhali
0.99

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.08
Arda Kardzhali
1.17

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw
70%
Botev Plovdiv or Arda Kardzhali
72%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
58%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
19%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
72%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
36%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
14%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
65%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
28%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
58%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.36 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more
42%
level
28%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
30%

Botev Plovdiv at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Botev Plovdiv 1–2 Arda Kardzhali

Arda Kardzhali beat Botev Plovdiv 2-1 in First League on May 12, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Plovdiv.