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Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv — First League 2018

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
12/2/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Arda Kardzhali45%
×Draw27%
Botev Plovdiv29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.42
Botev Plovdiv
1.08

Arda Kardzhali creates 31% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 136 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.45
Botev Plovdiv
1.05

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.11
Botev Plovdiv
1.38

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Botev Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
71%
Arda Kardzhali or Botev Plovdiv
73%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv
55%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
22%
Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
76%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
41%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
17%
Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
66%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
29%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
61%
Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.38 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.05 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
45%
level
27%
Botev Plovdiv scores more
29%

Arda Kardzhali at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv

Arda Kardzhali and Botev Plovdiv drew 0-0 in First League on December 2, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Arda in Kardzhali.