Botev Plovdiv III 6–0 Atletik Kuklen

Botev Plovdiv III

FT

6 – 0

Atletik Kuklen

5/3/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 33Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv III49%

×Draw24%

Atletik Kuklen27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIIExpected goals in this matchAtletik Kuklen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.19

Botev Plovdiv III

1.71

Atletik Kuklen

1.19

Botev Plovdiv III creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 135 away

1.21

creates per match

1.00

1.37

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv III

1.21

Atletik Kuklen

1.00

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv III

1.37

Atletik Kuklen

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv III ↓

Atletik Kuklen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv III or draw

73%

Botev Plovdiv III or Atletik Kuklen

76%

Draw or Atletik Kuklen

51%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+

27%

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals

82%

Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals

51%

Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals

24%

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals

70%

Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals

33%

Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)

65%

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv III at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Atletik Kuklen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.21 + Atletik Kuklen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.00 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botev Plovdiv III scores more

49%

level

24%

Atletik Kuklen scores more

27%

Botev Plovdiv III at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff