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Atletik Kuklen vs Botev Plovdiv III — Third League - Southeast 2018

Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
10/24/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 14Stadion Kuklen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atletik Kuklen52%
×Draw23%
Botev Plovdiv III25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletik Kuklen
1.81
Botev Plovdiv III
1.19

Atletik Kuklen creates 52% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 19 away

creates per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.46
Botev Plovdiv III
1.16

allows per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.21
Botev Plovdiv III
2.16

finishing

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletik Kuklen ↓

Botev Plovdiv III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atletik Kuklen or draw
75%
Atletik Kuklen or Botev Plovdiv III
77%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv III
48%

Winning margin

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
29%
Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
84%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
54%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
27%
Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
70%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
33%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
67%
Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletik Kuklen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

Botev Plovdiv III away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.46 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.81

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.16 + Atletik Kuklen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletik Kuklen scores more
52%
level
23%
Botev Plovdiv III scores more
25%

Atletik Kuklen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletik Kuklen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Atletik Kuklen 2–1 Botev Plovdiv III

Atletik Kuklen beat Botev Plovdiv III 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kuklen in Kuklen.