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Botev Plovdiv II vs Atletik Kuklen — Third League - Southeast 2018

Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
9/2/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 5Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II64%
×Draw18%
Atletik Kuklen18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv II
2.58
Atletik Kuklen
1.31

Botev Plovdiv II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 135 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II
2.95
Atletik Kuklen
1.00

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.63
Atletik Kuklen
2.21

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Atletik Kuklen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw
82%
Botev Plovdiv II or Atletik Kuklen
82%
Draw or Atletik Kuklen
36%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
43%
Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
92%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
72%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
47%
Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
73%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
38%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
78%
Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Atletik Kuklen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 2.95 + Atletik Kuklen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.58

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.00 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more
64%
level
18%
Atletik Kuklen scores more
18%

Botev Plovdiv II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Botev Plovdiv II 1–2 Atletik Kuklen

Atletik Kuklen beat Botev Plovdiv II 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.