Atletik Kuklen 1–4 Botev Plovdiv II: Result & Stats

Atletik Kuklen

FT

1 – 4

Botev Plovdiv II

3/16/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 24Stadion Kuklen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atletik Kuklen38%

×Draw26%

Botev Plovdiv II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletik KuklenExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.34

Atletik Kuklen

1.36

Botev Plovdiv II

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 136 home / 19 away

1.46

creates per match

1.47

1.21

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Atletik Kuklen

1.46

Botev Plovdiv II

1.47

allows per match

Atletik Kuklen

1.21

Botev Plovdiv II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletik Kuklen ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atletik Kuklen or draw

63%

Atletik Kuklen or Botev Plovdiv II

74%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

62%

Winning margin

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+

17%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals

74%

Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals

39%

Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals

16%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

74%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

39%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)

51%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletik Kuklen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.46 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.47 + Atletik Kuklen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletik Kuklen scores more

38%

level

26%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

37%

Atletik Kuklen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletik Kuklen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff