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Botev Novi Pazar vs Benkovski Byala — Third League - Northeast 2018

Botev Novi Pazar
Botev Novi Pazar
FT
5 – 2
Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
11/10/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 12Stadion Botev (Novi pazar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Botev Novi Pazar67%
×Draw18%
Benkovski Byala14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Novi Pazar
2.33
Benkovski Byala
0.98

Botev Novi Pazar creates 138% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 20 away

creates per match

Botev Novi Pazar
1.07
Benkovski Byala
0.30

allows per match

Botev Novi Pazar
1.67
Benkovski Byala
3.60

finishing

Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par
Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Novi Pazar ↓

Benkovski Byala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Botev Novi Pazar or draw
86%
Botev Novi Pazar or Benkovski Byala
82%
Draw or Benkovski Byala
33%

Winning margin

Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+
44%
Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals
90%
Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals
67%
Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals
41%
Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
62%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
26%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
82%
Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 90 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.33

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Botev Novi Pazar scores more
67%
level
18%
Benkovski Byala scores more
14%

Botev Novi Pazar at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Botev Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Novi Pazar vs Benkovski Byala

Botev Novi Pazar beat Benkovski Byala 5-2 in Third League - Northeast on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Botev (Novi pazar).