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Benkovski Byala vs Botev Novi Pazar — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
FT
1 – 2
Botev Novi Pazar
Botev Novi Pazar
4/21/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 25Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Byala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benkovski Byala59%
×Draw20%
Botev Novi Pazar20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Byala
2.17
Botev Novi Pazar
1.20

Benkovski Byala creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 90 away

creates per match

Benkovski Byala
1.37
Botev Novi Pazar
0.77

allows per match

Benkovski Byala
1.63
Botev Novi Pazar
2.98

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par
Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Botev Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw
80%
Benkovski Byala or Botev Novi Pazar
80%
Draw or Botev Novi Pazar
41%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
37%
Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
89%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
64%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
36%
Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals
70%
Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals
34%
Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
74%
Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Botev Novi Pazar away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.98 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.17

Botev Novi Pazar attack 0.77 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more
59%
level
20%
Botev Novi Pazar scores more
20%

Benkovski Byala at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Benkovski Byala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benkovski Byala vs Botev Novi Pazar

Botev Novi Pazar beat Benkovski Byala 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on April 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Byala).