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Botev Ihtiman vs Balkan Botevgrad — Third League - Southwest 2018

Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
5/16/2026Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Botev Ihtiman47%
×Draw24%
Balkan Botevgrad29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Ihtiman
1.68
Balkan Botevgrad
1.28

Botev Ihtiman creates 31% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 131 away

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.63
Balkan Botevgrad
1.27

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.29
Balkan Botevgrad
1.73

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par
Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Balkan Botevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw
71%
Botev Ihtiman or Balkan Botevgrad
76%
Draw or Balkan Botevgrad
53%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
25%
Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
81%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
50%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
24%
Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
72%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
37%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
62%
Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Balkan Botevgrad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.68

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.27 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more
47%
level
24%
Balkan Botevgrad scores more
29%

Botev Ihtiman at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Ihtiman vs Balkan Botevgrad

Botev Ihtiman and Balkan Botevgrad drew 3-3 in Third League - Southwest on May 16, 2026.