Balkan Botevgrad 0–1 Botev Ihtiman: Result & Stats

Balkan Botevgrad

FT

0 – 1

Botev Ihtiman

8/14/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 3Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad54%

×Draw23%

Botev Ihtiman23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Balkan BotevgradExpected goals in this matchBotev Ihtiman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.06

Balkan Botevgrad

1.78

Botev Ihtiman

1.06

Balkan Botevgrad creates 68% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 132 away

1.89

creates per match

0.98

1.15

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad

1.89

Botev Ihtiman

0.98

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad

1.15

Botev Ihtiman

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Botev Ihtiman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw

77%

Balkan Botevgrad or Botev Ihtiman

77%

Draw or Botev Ihtiman

46%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+

30%

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals

83%

Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals

53%

Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals

26%

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals

65%

Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals

29%

Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)

71%

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more

54%

level

23%

Botev Ihtiman scores more

23%

Balkan Botevgrad at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff