Botafogo 0–1 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats

Botafogo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barcelona SC

M. Celiz 8'

3/11/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Qualification Round 3Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Botafogo60%

×Draw27%

Barcelona SC14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BotafogoExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.54

Botafogo

1.45

Barcelona SC

0.54

Botafogo creates 169% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.36

creates per match

0.51

0.56

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Botafogo

1.36

Barcelona SC

0.51

allows per match

Botafogo

0.56

Barcelona SC

1.53

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Botafogo-0.36scores less

Barcelona SC+0.09on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Botafogo or draw

86%

Botafogo or Barcelona SC

73%

Draw or Barcelona SC

40%

Winning margin

Botafogo wins by 2+

31%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Botafogo 1+ goals

77%

Botafogo 2+ goals

42%

Botafogo 3+ goals

18%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

42%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

10%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Botafogo (draw refunded)

81%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.56 · 5 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.53 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo attack 1.36 + Barcelona SC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Barcelona SC attack 0.51 + Botafogo defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Botafogo scores more

60%

level

27%

Barcelona SC scores more

14%

Botafogo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Contreras

Barcelona SC · G

8.6

Match Events

8'

M. Celiz↳ T. Martinez

34'

J. Correa← M. Ponte

34'

B. Castillo← J. Rojas

45+4'

A. Barboza

46'

Arthur Cabral← Bastos

46'

J. Perlaza← T. Martinez

47'

J. Perlaza

51'

H. Villalba

58'

D. Benedetto← H. Villalba

58'

J. Mina← G. Vallecilla

59'

B. Castillo

71'

Artur← J. Barrera

84'

Nathan Fernandes← Matheus Martins

84'

Caio Valle← A. Montoro

90+2'

J. Contreras

90+5'

M. Celiz

90+5'

W. J. Chala Rosales← B. Carabali

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoBarcelona

Overview

81%Possession19%

21Total Shots8

0.99Expected Goals (xG)0.39

6Corners2

5Fouls9

Shots

21Total Shots8

5On Target2

10Off Target3

6Blocked3

11Inside Box3

10Outside Box5

Passing

81%Possession19%

646Total Passes160

572Accurate Passes79

89%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

1.12Goals Prevented1.12

Discipline

5Fouls9

1Yellow Cards5

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Botafogo 0–1 Barcelona SC

Barcelona SC beat Botafogo 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 11, 2026.

Goals: M. Celiz (8').

Botafogo controlled possession (81%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro.

Botafogo vs Barcelona SC — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Botafogo 0–1 Barcelona SC