Barcelona SC 1–1 Botafogo: Result & Stats

Barcelona SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Botafogo

H. Villalba 22'

Matheus Martins 66'

3/4/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Qualification Round 3Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Barcelona SC43%

×Draw28%

Botafogo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchBotafogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.98

Barcelona SC

1.28

Botafogo

0.98

Barcelona SC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

1.43

creates per match

0.86

1.10

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.43

Botafogo

0.86

allows per match

Barcelona SC

1.10

Botafogo

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Botafogo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Botafogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

72%

Barcelona SC or Botafogo

72%

Draw or Botafogo

57%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

20%

Botafogo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

72%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

37%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

14%

Botafogo 1+ goals

62%

Botafogo 2+ goals

26%

Botafogo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

60%

Botafogo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Botafogo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.43 + Botafogo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Botafogo attack 0.86 + Barcelona SC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

43%

level

28%

Botafogo scores more

28%

Barcelona SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Matheus Martins

Botafogo · F

7.6

Match Events

22'

44'

45+1'

48'

58'

J. Gomez← H. Villalba

58'

S. Nunez← D. Benedetto

64'

J. Mina← T. Martinez

66'

Matheus Martins↳ J. Barrera

71'

L. M. Villalba Jaume← M. Ponte

76'

C. A. Farias Acosta

77'

Arthur Cabral← Matheus Martins

79'

C. Montano← M. Celiz

79'

J. Wila← J. Rojas

86'

J. Correa← J. Barrera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaBotafogo

Overview

37%Possession63%

12Total Shots11

1.35Expected Goals (xG)0.90

4Corners6

12Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots11

3On Target3

5Off Target5

4Blocked3

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

282Total Passes505

224Accurate Passes425

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.26Goals Prevented-0.26

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides0

Match Recap: Barcelona SC vs Botafogo

Barcelona SC and Botafogo drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 4, 2026.

Goals: H. Villalba (22'), Matheus Martins (66').

Botafogo controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha in Guayaquil.

Barcelona SC vs Botafogo — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Barcelona SC vs Botafogo