Botafogo SP 0–1 Goias: Result & Stats | Serie B

Botafogo SP

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Goias

Anselmo Ramon 45'

4/28/2025

Serie B · Round 5Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Botafogo SP43%

×Draw27%

Goias31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo SPExpected goals in this matchGoias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.14

Botafogo SP

1.40

Goias

1.14

Botafogo SP creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.27

creates per match

1.30

0.97

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Botafogo SP

1.27

Goias

1.30

allows per match

Botafogo SP

0.97

Goias

1.52

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.16scores more

Goias-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

Goias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw

69%

Botafogo SP or Goias

73%

Draw or Goias

57%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

20%

Goias wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

75%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

41%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

17%

Goias 1+ goals

68%

Goias 2+ goals

32%

Goias 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

58%

Goias (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 14 matches

Goias away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.27 + Goias defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Goias attack 1.30 + Botafogo SP defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Botafogo SP scores more

43%

level

27%

Goias scores more

31%

Botafogo SP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Anselmo Ramon

Goias · F

7.7

Match Events

15'

Jeferson← Jefferson Nem

18'

26'

31'

39'

45'

Anselmo Ramon↳ Pedrinho

48'

Carlão

59'

Marcão Silva

62'

Willian Lins← Jonathan Cafu

62'

R. Carrillo← Carlao

71'

Arthur Caike← Welliton

71'

Anthony← Lucas Lovat

78'

G. Freitas← Marcao Silva

84'

Edson← Rafael Milhorim

84'

Tortello← Pablo Thomaz

84'

Baldoria← Pedrinho

84'

Jaja← Juninho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoGoias

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots7

5Corners8

10Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots7

2On Target2

5Off Target3

4Blocked2

5Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

404Total Passes321

327Accurate Passes230

81%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1