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Botafogo SP vs Goias — Serie B 2026

Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Goias
Goias
S. Abdulai 83'
9/9/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 25Arena NicNet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Botafogo SP42%
×Draw27%
Goias31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo SP
1.35
Goias
1.11

Botafogo SP creates 22% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Botafogo SP
1.27
Goias
1.25

allows per match

Botafogo SP
0.97
Goias
1.44

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.16scores more
Goias-0.25scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

Goias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw
69%
Botafogo SP or Goias
73%
Draw or Goias
58%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+
20%
Goias wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals
74%
Botafogo SP 2+ goals
39%
Botafogo SP 3+ goals
15%
Goias 1+ goals
67%
Goias 2+ goals
30%
Goias 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)
58%
Goias (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 14 matches

Goias away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.27 + Goias defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Goias attack 1.25 + Botafogo SP defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Botafogo SP scores more
42%
level
27%
Goias scores more
31%

Botafogo SP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
João CarlosBotafogo SPBotafogo SP · G
8.0

Match Events

22'
João Costa← Matheus Barbosa
40'
Victor Andrade
40'
Messias
45+3'
Fábio Sanches
46'
Wallison← Fábio Sanches
59'
Welliton← J. Vásquez
59'
Juninho← Luiz Henrique
61'
Paulo Baya
73'
Bernardo Schappo
76'
Á. Rodríguez← Thiago Galhardo
80'
Jean Victor← Patrick Brey
80'
Pedro Costa← Emerson Negueba
83'
S. Abdulai
86'
Edu← Rafael Gava
86'
Rildo← Paulo Baya
90+2'
Gustavo Bochecha← Victor Andrade

Possession

50%Botafogo

Shots

13Botafogo

Pass accuracy

50%Botafogo

Statistics

BotafogoGoias
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots13
9Corners8
17Fouls21
Shots
13Total Shots13
3On Target6
6Off Target4
4Blocked3
8Inside Box9
5Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
293Total Passes294
215Accurate Passes215
73%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls21
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Botafogo SP vs Goias

Botafogo SP beat Goias 1-0 in Serie B on September 9, 2024.

Goals: S. Abdulai (83').

Botafogo SP controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Arena NicNet in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo.