Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Botafogo SP U20 vs Atlético GO U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2020

Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
FT
1 – 0
Atlético GO U20
Atlético GO U20
Unknown 53'
9/26/2021Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 17Centro de Formação de Atletas TROPS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Botafogo SP U2063%
×Draw20%
Atlético GO U2017%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo SP U20
2.17
Atlético GO U20
1.04

Botafogo SP U20 creates 109% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 40 away

creates per match

Botafogo SP U20
1.75
Atlético GO U20
0.90

allows per match

Botafogo SP U20
1.18
Atlético GO U20
2.60

finishing

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par
Atlético GO U20+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP U20 ↓

Atlético GO U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Botafogo SP U20 or draw
83%
Botafogo SP U20 or Atlético GO U20
80%
Draw or Atlético GO U20
37%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
40%
Atlético GO U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
89%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
64%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
36%
Atlético GO U20 1+ goals
65%
Atlético GO U20 2+ goals
28%
Atlético GO U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
78%
Atlético GO U20 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP U20 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Atlético GO U20 away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.75 + Atlético GO U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.17

Atlético GO U20 attack 0.90 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Botafogo SP U20 scores more
63%
level
20%
Atlético GO U20 scores more
17%

Botafogo SP U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U20 A: Botafogo SP U20 1–0 Atlético GO U20

Botafogo SP U20 beat Atlético GO U20 1-0 in Brasileiro U20 A on September 26, 2021.

Goals: ? (53').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas TROPS in Várzea das Moças Niterói, Rio de Janeiro.