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Atlético GO U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 — League #618 2026

Atlético GO U20
Atlético GO U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
Keven 90+1', 80'
Bruno 15'
1/4/2023League #618League #618 · Group Stage - 1Estádio João Mendes Athayde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlético GO U2036%
×Draw25%
Botafogo SP U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético GO U20
1.44
Botafogo SP U20
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Atlético GO U20
1.20
Botafogo SP U20
1.00

allows per match

Atlético GO U20
2.00
Botafogo SP U20
1.67

finishing

Atlético GO U20+0.00on par
Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético GO U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atlético GO U20 or draw
61%
Atlético GO U20 or Botafogo SP U20
75%
Draw or Botafogo SP U20
64%

Winning margin

Atlético GO U20 wins by 2+
17%
Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atlético GO U20 1+ goals
76%
Atlético GO U20 2+ goals
42%
Atlético GO U20 3+ goals
18%
Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
78%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
44%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Atlético GO U20 (draw refunded)
48%
Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético GO U20 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético GO U20 attack 1.20 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.00 + Atlético GO U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético GO U20 scores more
36%
level
25%
Botafogo SP U20 scores more
39%

Botafogo SP U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Bruno
80'
Keven
90+1'
Keven

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético GO U20 vs Botafogo SP U20

Atlético GO U20 beat Botafogo SP U20 2-1 in League #618 on January 4, 2023.

Goals: Bruno (15'), Keven (80', 90+1').

The match was played at Estádio João Mendes Athayde in São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo.