Botafogo PB 2–1 Altos: Result & Stats | Serie C

Botafogo PB

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Altos

5/7/2022

Serie C · Round 5Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Botafogo PB56%

×Draw24%

Altos19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo PBExpected goals in this matchAltos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.86

Botafogo PB

1.66

Altos

0.86

Botafogo PB creates 93% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 29 away

1.49

creates per match

0.86

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Botafogo PB

1.49

Altos

0.86

allows per match

Botafogo PB

0.86

Altos

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Altos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

Altos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw

81%

Botafogo PB or Altos

76%

Draw or Altos

44%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+

31%

Altos wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals

81%

Botafogo PB 2+ goals

49%

Botafogo PB 3+ goals

23%

Altos 1+ goals

58%

Altos 2+ goals

21%

Altos 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)

74%

Altos (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Altos away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 1.49 + Altos defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

Altos attack 0.86 + Botafogo PB defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Botafogo PB scores more

56%

level

24%

Altos scores more

19%

Botafogo PB at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff