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Altos vs Botafogo PB — Serie C 2018

Altos
Altos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
7/23/2023Serie CSerie C · Round 14Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Altos39%
×Draw30%
Botafogo PB31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altos
1.13
Botafogo PB
0.97

Altos creates 16% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 88 away

creates per match

Altos
1.15
Botafogo PB
0.86

allows per match

Altos
1.07
Botafogo PB
1.10

finishing

Altos+0.00on par
Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altos ↓

Botafogo PB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Altos or draw
69%
Altos or Botafogo PB
70%
Draw or Botafogo PB
61%

Winning margin

Altos wins by 2+
16%
Botafogo PB wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Altos 1+ goals
68%
Altos 2+ goals
31%
Altos 3+ goals
11%
Botafogo PB 1+ goals
62%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
25%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Altos (draw refunded)
56%
Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altos at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altos attack 1.15 + Botafogo PB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Botafogo PB attack 0.86 + Altos defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Altos scores more
39%
level
30%
Botafogo PB scores more
31%

Altos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altos vs Botafogo PB

Botafogo PB beat Altos 1-0 in Serie C on July 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro in Teresina, Piauí.