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Botafogo BA vs Barcelona BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Botafogo BA
Botafogo BA
FT
2 – 1
Barcelona BA
Barcelona BA
8/1/2021Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · FinalsEstádio Municipal Antônio Pedro Amorim Duarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Botafogo BA58%
×Draw21%
Barcelona BA21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo BA
2.10
Barcelona BA
1.19

Botafogo BA creates 76% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Botafogo BA
1.63
Barcelona BA
1.14

allows per match

Botafogo BA
1.25
Barcelona BA
2.57

finishing

Botafogo BA+0.00on par
Barcelona BA+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo BA ↓

Barcelona BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Botafogo BA or draw
79%
Botafogo BA or Barcelona BA
79%
Draw or Barcelona BA
42%

Winning margin

Botafogo BA wins by 2+
35%
Barcelona BA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botafogo BA 1+ goals
88%
Botafogo BA 2+ goals
62%
Botafogo BA 3+ goals
35%
Barcelona BA 1+ goals
70%
Barcelona BA 2+ goals
33%
Barcelona BA 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Botafogo BA (draw refunded)
73%
Barcelona BA (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo BA at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Barcelona BA away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo BA attack 1.63 + Barcelona BA defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.10

Barcelona BA attack 1.14 + Botafogo BA defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Botafogo BA scores more
58%
level
21%
Barcelona BA scores more
21%

Botafogo BA at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Botafogo BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Botafogo BA 2–1 Barcelona BA

Botafogo BA beat Barcelona BA 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Pedro Amorim Duarte in Senhor do Bonfim, Bahia.