Barcelona BA 3–0 Botafogo BA: Result & Stats

Barcelona BA

FT

3 – 0

Botafogo BA

8/8/2021

Baiano - 2 · FinalsEstádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Barcelona BA61%

×Draw22%

Botafogo BA17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BAExpected goals in this matchBotafogo BA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.86

Barcelona BA

1.89

Botafogo BA

0.86

Barcelona BA creates 120% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.33

creates per match

1.22

0.50

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Barcelona BA

2.33

Botafogo BA

1.22

allows per match

Barcelona BA

0.50

Botafogo BA

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona BA+0.00on par

Botafogo BA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona BA ↓

Botafogo BA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Barcelona BA or draw

83%

Barcelona BA or Botafogo BA

78%

Draw or Botafogo BA

39%

Winning margin

Barcelona BA wins by 2+

36%

Botafogo BA wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Barcelona BA 1+ goals

85%

Barcelona BA 2+ goals

56%

Barcelona BA 3+ goals

29%

Botafogo BA 1+ goals

58%

Botafogo BA 2+ goals

21%

Botafogo BA 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)

79%

Botafogo BA (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona BA at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Botafogo BA away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona BA attack 2.33 + Botafogo BA defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Botafogo BA attack 1.22 + Barcelona BA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Barcelona BA scores more

61%

level

22%

Botafogo BA scores more

17%

Barcelona BA at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Barcelona BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff