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Boston River vs Atletico Torque — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Boston River
Boston River
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Torque
Atletico Torque
2/9/2025Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 2Parque Artigas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Boston River35%
×Draw27%
Atletico Torque39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
1.23
Atletico Torque
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 65 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.18
Atletico Torque
1.32

allows per match

Boston River
1.29
Atletico Torque
1.29

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Atletico Torque+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Atletico Torque →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
61%
Boston River or Atletico Torque
73%
Draw or Atletico Torque
65%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
15%
Atletico Torque wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
71%
Boston River 2+ goals
35%
Boston River 3+ goals
13%
Atletico Torque 1+ goals
73%
Atletico Torque 2+ goals
38%
Atletico Torque 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
47%
Atletico Torque (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Atletico Torque away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.29 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Atletico Torque defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atletico Torque attack 1.32 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Boston River scores more
35%
level
27%
Atletico Torque scores more
39%

Atletico Torque at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Torque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Boston River 0–0 Atletico Torque

Boston River and Atletico Torque drew 0-0 in Primera División - Apertura on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Parque Artigas in Las Piedras.