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Atletico Torque vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Atletico Torque
Atletico Torque
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Boston River
Boston River
6/25/2023Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 3Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Atletico Torque37%
×Draw27%
Boston River36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Torque
1.26
Boston River
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 82 away

creates per match

Atletico Torque
1.25
Boston River
1.02

allows per match

Atletico Torque
1.49
Boston River
1.27

finishing

Atletico Torque+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Torque ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Torque or draw
64%
Atletico Torque or Boston River
73%
Draw or Boston River
63%

Winning margin

Atletico Torque wins by 2+
16%
Boston River wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atletico Torque 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Torque 2+ goals
36%
Atletico Torque 3+ goals
13%
Boston River 1+ goals
71%
Boston River 2+ goals
36%
Boston River 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atletico Torque (draw refunded)
50%
Boston River (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Torque at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Torque attack 1.25 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Boston River attack 1.02 + Atletico Torque defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atletico Torque scores more
37%
level
27%
Boston River scores more
36%

Atletico Torque at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico Torque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Atletico Torque 3–1 Boston River

Atletico Torque beat Boston River 3-1 in Primera División - Apertura on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.