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Boston River vs Albion FC — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Boston River
Boston River
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Albion FC
Albion FC
2/21/2026Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 3Parque Artigas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Boston River36%
×Draw29%
Albion FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
1.11
Albion FC
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 20 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.18
Albion FC
0.90

allows per match

Boston River
1.29
Albion FC
1.05

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Albion FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Albion FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
65%
Boston River or Albion FC
71%
Draw or Albion FC
64%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
15%
Albion FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
67%
Boston River 2+ goals
30%
Boston River 3+ goals
10%
Albion FC 1+ goals
66%
Albion FC 2+ goals
30%
Albion FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
51%
Albion FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Albion FC away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Albion FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Albion FC attack 0.90 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Boston River scores more
36%
level
29%
Albion FC scores more
35%

Boston River at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boston River vs Albion FC

Boston River and Albion FC drew 0-0 in Primera División - Apertura on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Parque Artigas in Las Piedras.