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Albion FC vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Albion FC
Albion FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Boston River
Boston River
4/2/2022Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 7Parque Federico Omar Saroldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Albion FC39%
×Draw25%
Boston River36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion FC
1.43
Boston River
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 82 away

creates per match

Albion FC
1.59
Boston River
1.02

allows per match

Albion FC
1.73
Boston River
1.27

finishing

Albion FC+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion FC ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Albion FC or draw
64%
Albion FC or Boston River
75%
Draw or Boston River
61%

Winning margin

Albion FC wins by 2+
18%
Boston River wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Albion FC 1+ goals
76%
Albion FC 2+ goals
42%
Albion FC 3+ goals
17%
Boston River 1+ goals
75%
Boston River 2+ goals
40%
Boston River 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Albion FC (draw refunded)
52%
Boston River (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion FC at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion FC attack 1.59 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Boston River attack 1.02 + Albion FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albion FC scores more
39%
level
25%
Boston River scores more
36%

Albion FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albion FC vs Boston River

Boston River beat Albion FC 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Parque Federico Omar Saroldi in Montevideo.