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Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Romania — UEFA Nations League 2018

Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Preview
19:45
Romania
Romania
11/17/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 6
Big match
39%
Romania
model favours
33%28%39%

Bosnia & Herzegovina have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina33%
×Draw28%
Romania39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.13
Romania
1.25

Romania creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.00
Romania
1.50

allows per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.00
Romania
1.25

finishing

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par
Romania+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia & Herzegovina ↓

Romania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw
61%
Bosnia & Herzegovina or Romania
72%
Draw or Romania
67%

Winning margin

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+
13%
Romania wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals
68%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals
31%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals
11%
Romania 1+ goals
71%
Romania 2+ goals
36%
Romania 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)
46%
Romania (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia & Herzegovina at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Romania away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 1.00 + Romania defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Romania attack 1.50 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more
33%
level
28%
Romania scores more
39%

Romania at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Bosnia & Herzegovina 4 vs Romania 1

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Direct / counter-attacking
Romania
Balanced
43%Possession51%
79%Pass accuracy80%
9.0ShotsBiggest gap12.4
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bosnia & HerzegovinaRomania

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

3
Bosnia & Herzegovina
0
Draws
1
Romania
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%
3–11–01–41–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Herzegovina
LWLDD
Romania
WDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bosnia & Herzegovina host Romania

November 17, 2026: Bosnia & Herzegovina take on Romania in UEFA Nations League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.