Borussia M'bach U19 1–1 1860 München U19

Borussia M'bach U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

1860 München U19

C. Güner 38'

S. Althaus 36'

2/9/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 2Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1953%

×Draw21%

1860 München U1926%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this match1860 München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.50

Borussia M'bach U19

2.19

1860 München U19

1.50

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 54 away

2.30

creates per match

1.70

1.31

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.30

1860 München U19

1.70

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.31

1860 München U19

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

1860 München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

74%

Borussia M'bach U19 or 1860 München U19

79%

Draw or 1860 München U19

47%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

32%

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

89%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

64%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

37%

1860 München U19 1+ goals

78%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

44%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

67%

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

1860 München U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.30 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.19

1860 München U19 attack 1.70 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

53%

level

21%

1860 München U19 scores more

26%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

38'

46'

61'

61'

S. Ketola← T. Koukkumäki

72'

G. Genidis← E. Erdoğan

72'

L. Grancay← S. Althaus

88'

F. Hoxha← C. Güner

88'

T. Top-Rasmussen← T. Catkaya

88'

L. Fiedler← L. Azambuja

90'

L. Hohmann← E. Dursun

Borussia

1860

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Güner

Manager: O. Kirch

61'▲F. Fleck←▼N. Vidic

61'▲S. Ketola←▼T. Koukkumäki

88'▲F. Hoxha←▼C. Güner

88'▲T. Top-Rasmussen←▼T. Catkaya

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

FleckKetolaHoxhaTop-RasmussenKrasniqiGutajNguefack

Manager: J. Schittenhelm

46'▲J. Schurz←▼M. Tekin

72'▲G. Genidis←▼E. Erdoğan

72'▲L. Grancay←▼S. Althaus

88'▲L. Fiedler←▼L. Azambuja

90'▲L. Hohmann←▼E. Dursun

1860 München U19 substitutes

SchurzGenidisGrancayFiedlerHohmannWagenspöckDunker

Match Recap: Borussia M'bach U19 vs 1860 München U19

Borussia M'bach U19 and 1860 München U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 9, 2025.

Goals: S. Althaus (36'), C. Güner (38').

The match was played at Fohlenplatz in Mönchengladbach.

Borussia M'bach U19 vs 1860 München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Borussia M'bach U19 vs 1860 München U19