1860 München U19 1–2 Borussia M'bach U19

1860 München U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Borussia M'bach U19

S. Althaus 58'

S. Ketola 71'

N. Vidic 67'

3/16/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 7Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

1860 München U1932%

×Draw22%

Borussia M'bach U1947%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1860 München U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'bach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.98

1860 München U19

1.60

Borussia M'bach U19

1.98

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 73 away

1.76

creates per match

2.32

1.64

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

1860 München U19

1.76

Borussia M'bach U19

2.32

allows per match

1860 München U19

1.64

Borussia M'bach U19

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw

53%

1860 München U19 or Borussia M'bach U19

78%

Draw or Borussia M'bach U19

68%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

15%

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals

80%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

47%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

22%

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

86%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

59%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.76 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.60

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

1860 München U19 scores more

32%

level

22%

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

47%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. Ketola← C. Güner

58'

S. Althaus

61'

J. Schurz← L. Azambuja

67'

N. Vidic

71'

S. Ketola

76'

L. Grancay← E. Dursun

76'

L. Hohmann← M. Tekin

77'

F. Hoxha← F. Fleck

88'

G. Genidis← S. Althaus

88'

L. Fiedler← M. Roithmayr

88'

E. Khadraoui← K. Sauck

90'

F. Opoku Mensah← J. Uwakhonye

1860

Borussia

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Schittenhelm

61'▲J. Schurz←▼L. Azambuja

76'▲L. Grancay←▼E. Dursun

76'▲L. Hohmann←▼M. Tekin

88'▲G. Genidis←▼S. Althaus

88'▲L. Fiedler←▼M. Roithmayr

1860 München U19 substitutes

SchurzGrancayHohmannGenidisFiedlerErkocaoglanWagenspöck

Manager: O. Kirch

46'▲S. Ketola←▼C. Güner

77'▲F. Hoxha←▼F. Fleck

88'▲E. Khadraoui←▼K. Sauck

90'▲F. Opoku Mensah←▼J. Uwakhonye

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

KetolaHoxhaKhadraouiMensahBeckerNappiMohya

Match Recap: 1860 München U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19

Borussia M'bach U19 beat 1860 München U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 16, 2025.

Goals: S. Althaus (58'), N. Vidic (67'), S. Ketola (71').

The match was played at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5 in München.

1860 München U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: 1860 München U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19