Borussia Dortmund 5–0 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Borussia Dortmund

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Beşiktaş

12/7/2021

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 6Signal-Iduna-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Borussia Dortmund83%

×Draw12%

Beşiktaş5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia DortmundExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

0.51

Borussia Dortmund

2.69

Beşiktaş

0.51

Borussia Dortmund creates 427% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 4 away

1.88

creates per match

0.25

0.76

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund

1.88

Beşiktaş

0.25

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund

0.76

Beşiktaş

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw

95%

Borussia Dortmund or Beşiktaş

88%

Draw or Beşiktaş

17%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+

62%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals

93%

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

74%

Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals

49%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

40%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

9%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)

94%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund attack 1.88 + Beşiktaş defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.69

Beşiktaş attack 0.25 + Borussia Dortmund defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Borussia Dortmund scores more

83%

level

12%

Beşiktaş scores more

5%

Borussia Dortmund at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff