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Beşiktaş vs Borussia Dortmund — UEFA Champions League 2018

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
9/15/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 1Vodafone Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beşiktaş28%
×Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
1.50
Borussia Dortmund
2.04

Borussia Dortmund creates 36% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 25 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
1.00
Borussia Dortmund
1.40

allows per match

Beşiktaş
2.67
Borussia Dortmund
2.00

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Borussia Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
50%
Beşiktaş or Borussia Dortmund
78%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund
72%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
13%
Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
78%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
44%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
19%
Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals
87%
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
60%
Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
36%
Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Borussia Dortmund away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.00 + Borussia Dortmund defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Borussia Dortmund attack 1.40 + Beşiktaş defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
28%
level
22%
Borussia Dortmund scores more
50%

Borussia Dortmund at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Beşiktaş 1–2 Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund beat Beşiktaş 2-1 in UEFA Champions League on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Vodafone Park in İstanbul.