Borussia Dortmund 1–0 1899 Hoffenheim

Borussia Dortmund

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

1899 Hoffenheim

11/1/2023

DFB Pokal · 2nd RoundSIGNAL IDUNA PARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Borussia Dortmund56%

×Draw21%

1899 Hoffenheim24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia DortmundExpected goals in this match1899 Hoffenheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.35

Borussia Dortmund

2.17

1899 Hoffenheim

1.35

Borussia Dortmund creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.83

creates per match

2.20

0.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund

2.83

1899 Hoffenheim

2.20

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund

0.50

1899 Hoffenheim

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par

1899 Hoffenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund ↓

1899 Hoffenheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw

76%

Borussia Dortmund or 1899 Hoffenheim

79%

Draw or 1899 Hoffenheim

44%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+

34%

1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals

89%

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

64%

Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals

36%

1899 Hoffenheim 1+ goals

74%

1899 Hoffenheim 2+ goals

39%

1899 Hoffenheim 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)

70%

1899 Hoffenheim (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund at home — creates 2.83, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

1899 Hoffenheim away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund attack 2.83 + 1899 Hoffenheim defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

1899 Hoffenheim attack 2.20 + Borussia Dortmund defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Borussia Dortmund scores more

56%

level

21%

1899 Hoffenheim scores more

24%

Borussia Dortmund at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff