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1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund — Bundesliga 2018

1899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
2/25/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 22PreZero Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

1899 Hoffenheim40%
×Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1899 Hoffenheim
1.52
Borussia Dortmund
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

1899 Hoffenheim
1.69
Borussia Dortmund
1.34

allows per match

1899 Hoffenheim
1.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.34

finishing

1899 Hoffenheim+0.19scores more
Borussia Dortmund+0.43scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1899 Hoffenheim ↓

Borussia Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

1899 Hoffenheim or draw
65%
1899 Hoffenheim or Borussia Dortmund
75%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund
60%

Winning margin

1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2+
19%
Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

1899 Hoffenheim 1+ goals
78%
1899 Hoffenheim 2+ goals
45%
1899 Hoffenheim 3+ goals
20%
Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals
76%
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
41%
Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

1899 Hoffenheim (draw refunded)
53%
Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1899 Hoffenheim at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.50 · 25 matches

Borussia Dortmund away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.69 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Borussia Dortmund attack 1.34 + 1899 Hoffenheim defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

1899 Hoffenheim scores more
40%
level
25%
Borussia Dortmund scores more
35%

1899 Hoffenheim at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "1899 Hoffenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: 1899 Hoffenheim 0–1 Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 in Bundesliga on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at PreZero Arena in Sinsheim.