Borussia Dortmund U19 0–0 Bayern München U19

Borussia Dortmund U19

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bayern München U19

5/22/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Championship - FinalSignal-Iduna-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1950%

×Draw20%

Bayern München U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia Dortmund U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.78

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.32

Bayern München U19

1.78

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 72 away

2.97

creates per match

2.63

0.93

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.97

Bayern München U19

2.63

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

0.93

Bayern München U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw

70%

Borussia Dortmund U19 or Bayern München U19

80%

Draw or Bayern München U19

50%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

30%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

90%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

67%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

40%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

83%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

53%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 2.97, concedes 0.93 · 72 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.97 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.32

Bayern München U19 attack 2.63 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

50%

level

20%

Bayern München U19 scores more

30%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

H. Bulut← D. Wanner

67'

J. Baxmann← J. Schwermann

76'

J. Serra← E. Amenyido

85'

A. Schulte← F. Passlack

88'

M. Crnički← M. Wintzheimer

92'

M. Awoudja← J. Meier

101'

Y. Emghames← M. Shabani

Borussia

Bayern

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Hoffmann

56'▲H. Bulut←▼D. Wanner

67'▲J. Baxmann←▼J. Schwermann

76'▲J. Serra←▼E. Amenyido

85'▲A. Schulte←▼F. Passlack

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

BulutBaxmannSerraSchulteKyerematengSechelmannPulisic

Manager: H. Seitz

88'▲M. Crnički←▼M. Wintzheimer

92'▲M. Awoudja←▼J. Meier

101'▲Y. Emghames←▼M. Shabani

Bayern München U19 substitutes

CrničkiAwoudjaEmghamesCarusoLangeTürkkalesiPoppler-Isherwood

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Bayern München U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 and Bayern München U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 22, 2017.

The match was played at Signal-Iduna-Park in Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Bayern München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Bayern München U19