Bayern München U19 4–2 Borussia Dortmund U19

Bayern München U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Borussia Dortmund U19

L. Karl 82', 18'

F. Chávez 29', 10'

N. Cherny 49'

S. Inácio 30'

5/4/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Championship - Quarter-finalsFC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bayern München U1936%

×Draw21%

Borussia Dortmund U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.05

Bayern München U19

1.88

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 66 away

2.58

creates per match

2.59

1.52

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Bayern München U19

2.58

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.59

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.52

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

57%

Bayern München U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

79%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

64%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

19%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

85%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

56%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

29%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

87%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

61%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.58 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.88

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.59 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

36%

level

21%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

43%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

18'

29'

30'

46'

T. Meiser← N. Adamczyk

49'

64'

68'

68'

69'

L. Richter← T. Binder

69'

82'

83'

87'

Bayern

Borussia

1

Lisewski

23

▼

Adamczyk

5

Benkara

2

▼

Rashidi

18

Riedl

21

▼

Degener

8

⚽

Cherny

26

A

Kaba

20

A

Albert

11

Diallo

29

⚽

Inácio

1

A

5

3

4

2

6

10

⚽2

▼

Chávez

11

A

▼

Binder

7

⚽2

▼

Karl

8

Sadat

9

Kusi-Asar

Manager: P. Gaydarov

69'▲L. Richter←▼T. Binder

83'▲S. Zöls←▼F. Chávez

87'▲Y. Nasrawe←▼L. Karl

Bayern München U19 substitutes

15Richter17Zöls16Nasrawe13Schuhbauer12Schäfer18Stancic14Paylan

46'▲T. Meiser←▼N. Adamczyk

64'▲V. Cena←▼W. Rashidi

69'▲P. Kegni←▼T. Degener

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

4Meiser3Cena9Kegni16Błaszczyk12Held24Burstedde14Mahjoubi

Match Recap: Bayern München U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19

Bayern München U19 beat Borussia Dortmund U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on May 4, 2025.

Goals: F. Chávez (10', 29'), L. Karl (18', 82'), S. Inácio (30'), N. Cherny (49').

The match was played at FC Bayern Campus Platz 1 in München.

Bayern München U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bayern München U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19