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Boruna Tsareva livada vs Bdin — Third League - Northwest 2018

Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
FT
2 – 3
Bdin
Bdin
5/27/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 29Stadion Tsareva Livada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Boruna Tsareva livada40%
×Draw22%
Bdin38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boruna Tsareva livada
1.89
Bdin
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 93 away

creates per match

Boruna Tsareva livada
1.75
Bdin
1.47

allows per match

Boruna Tsareva livada
2.21
Bdin
2.03

finishing

Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par
Bdin+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boruna Tsareva livada ↓

Bdin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Boruna Tsareva livada or draw
62%
Boruna Tsareva livada or Bdin
78%
Draw or Bdin
60%

Winning margin

Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
21%
Bdin wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
85%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
56%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
29%
Bdin 1+ goals
84%
Bdin 2+ goals
55%
Bdin 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
51%
Bdin (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boruna Tsareva livada at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.21 · 28 matches

Bdin away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 1.75 + Bdin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.89

Bdin attack 1.47 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
40%
level
22%
Bdin scores more
38%

Boruna Tsareva livada at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Boruna Tsareva livada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boruna Tsareva livada vs Bdin

Bdin beat Boruna Tsareva livada 3-2 in Third League - Northwest on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tsareva Livada in Dryanovo.