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Bdin vs Boruna Tsareva livada — Third League - Northwest 2018

Bdin
Bdin
FT
7 – 0
Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
11/5/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 14Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bdin73%
×Draw16%
Boruna Tsareva livada11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bdin
2.48
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.84

Bdin creates 195% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 29 away

creates per match

Bdin
2.33
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.72

allows per match

Bdin
0.96
Boruna Tsareva livada
2.62

finishing

Bdin+0.00on par
Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bdin ↓

Boruna Tsareva livada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bdin or draw
89%
Bdin or Boruna Tsareva livada
84%
Draw or Boruna Tsareva livada
27%

Winning margin

Bdin wins by 2+
50%
Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bdin 1+ goals
92%
Bdin 2+ goals
70%
Bdin 3+ goals
44%
Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
57%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
21%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bdin (draw refunded)
87%
Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bdin at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 92 matches

Boruna Tsareva livada away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bdin attack 2.33 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.48

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 0.72 + Bdin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Bdin scores more
73%
level
16%
Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
11%

Bdin at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Bdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bdin vs Boruna Tsareva livada

Bdin beat Boruna Tsareva livada 7-0 in Third League - Northwest on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Vidin.