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Bordj BOU Arreridj vs AS AIN Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

Bordj BOU Arreridj
Bordj BOU Arreridj
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
AS AIN Mlila
AS AIN Mlila
9/24/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj50%
×Draw27%
AS AIN Mlila24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.46
AS AIN Mlila
0.91

Bordj BOU Arreridj creates 60% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.09
AS AIN Mlila
0.78

allows per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.04
AS AIN Mlila
1.82

finishing

Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par
AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj BOU Arreridj ↓

AS AIN Mlila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bordj BOU Arreridj or draw
76%
Bordj BOU Arreridj or AS AIN Mlila
73%
Draw or AS AIN Mlila
50%

Winning margin

Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+
25%
AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals
77%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals
43%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals
18%
AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals
60%
AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals
23%
AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)
68%
AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj BOU Arreridj at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

AS AIN Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 1.09 + AS AIN Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.46

AS AIN Mlila attack 0.78 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more
50%
level
27%
AS AIN Mlila scores more
24%

Bordj BOU Arreridj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bordj BOU Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Bordj BOU Arreridj 2–2 AS AIN Mlila

Bordj BOU Arreridj and AS AIN Mlila drew 2-2 in Ligue 1 on September 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj).