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AS Ain Mlila vs Bordj Bou Arreridj — Ligue 1 2018

AS Ain Mlila
AS Ain Mlila
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bordj Bou Arreridj
Bordj Bou Arreridj
3/17/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade Touhami Zoubir Khelifi (Aïn M'lila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

AS Ain Mlila57%
×Draw28%
Bordj Bou Arreridj15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Ain Mlila
1.35
Bordj Bou Arreridj
0.55

AS Ain Mlila creates 145% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

AS Ain Mlila
1.09
Bordj Bou Arreridj
0.53

allows per match

AS Ain Mlila
0.58
Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.62

finishing

AS Ain Mlila+0.00on par
Bordj Bou Arreridj+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Ain Mlila ↓

Bordj Bou Arreridj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS Ain Mlila or draw
85%
AS Ain Mlila or Bordj Bou Arreridj
72%
Draw or Bordj Bou Arreridj
43%

Winning margin

AS Ain Mlila wins by 2+
28%
Bordj Bou Arreridj wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

AS Ain Mlila 1+ goals
74%
AS Ain Mlila 2+ goals
39%
AS Ain Mlila 3+ goals
15%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 1+ goals
42%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 2+ goals
11%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

AS Ain Mlila (draw refunded)
79%
Bordj Bou Arreridj (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Ain Mlila at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

Bordj Bou Arreridj away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Ain Mlila attack 1.09 + Bordj Bou Arreridj defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bordj Bou Arreridj attack 0.53 + AS Ain Mlila defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

AS Ain Mlila scores more
57%
level
28%
Bordj Bou Arreridj scores more
15%

AS Ain Mlila at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "AS Ain Mlila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Ain Mlila vs Bordj Bou Arreridj

AS Ain Mlila beat Bordj Bou Arreridj 1-0 in Ligue 1 on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Touhami Zoubir Khelifi (Aïn M'lila).