Borac Sakule 2–0 Bačka 1901: Result & Stats

Borac Sakule

FT

2 – 0

Bačka 1901

4/11/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 27Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Borac Sakule54%

×Draw22%

Bačka 190124%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac SakuleExpected goals in this matchBačka 1901

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.21

Borac Sakule

1.93

Bačka 1901

1.21

Borac Sakule creates 60% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 27 away

1.86

creates per match

1.26

1.16

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Borac Sakule

1.86

Bačka 1901

1.26

allows per match

Borac Sakule

1.16

Bačka 1901

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Bačka 1901 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw

76%

Borac Sakule or Bačka 1901

78%

Draw or Bačka 1901

46%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+

31%

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals

85%

Borac Sakule 2+ goals

57%

Borac Sakule 3+ goals

30%

Bačka 1901 1+ goals

70%

Bačka 1901 2+ goals

34%

Bačka 1901 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)

69%

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Borac Sakule scores more

54%

level

22%

Bačka 1901 scores more

24%

Borac Sakule at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff