Bačka 1901 0–1 Borac Sakule: Result & Stats

Bačka 1901

FT

0 – 1

Borac Sakule

9/19/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 8Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bačka 190144%

×Draw24%

Borac Sakule32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bačka 1901Expected goals in this matchBorac Sakule

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.32

Bačka 1901

1.60

Borac Sakule

1.32

Bačka 1901 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 42 away

1.61

creates per match

1.40

1.25

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Bačka 1901

1.61

Borac Sakule

1.40

allows per match

Bačka 1901

1.25

Borac Sakule

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bačka 1901 ↓

Borac Sakule →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bačka 1901 or draw

68%

Bačka 1901 or Borac Sakule

76%

Draw or Borac Sakule

56%

Winning margin

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+

22%

Borac Sakule wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bačka 1901 1+ goals

80%

Bačka 1901 2+ goals

47%

Bačka 1901 3+ goals

22%

Borac Sakule 1+ goals

73%

Borac Sakule 2+ goals

38%

Borac Sakule 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)

58%

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bačka 1901 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Borac Sakule away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bačka 1901 attack 1.61 + Borac Sakule defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Borac Sakule attack 1.40 + Bačka 1901 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bačka 1901 scores more

44%

level

24%

Borac Sakule scores more

32%

Bačka 1901 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bačka 1901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff