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Borac Šajkaš vs Tekstilac Odžaci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Šajkaš
Borac Šajkaš
FT
2 – 1
Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
4/24/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 24Stadion Borac Šajkaš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Borac Šajkaš35%
×Draw25%
Tekstilac Odžaci40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Šajkaš
1.38
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 29 away

creates per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.51
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.90

allows per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.08
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.24

finishing

Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par
Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Šajkaš ↓

Tekstilac Odžaci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Borac Šajkaš or draw
60%
Borac Šajkaš or Tekstilac Odžaci
75%
Draw or Tekstilac Odžaci
65%

Winning margin

Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+
16%
Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals
75%
Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals
40%
Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals
16%
Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
77%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
44%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)
47%
Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Šajkaš at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Tekstilac Odžaci away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Šajkaš attack 1.51 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.90 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Borac Šajkaš scores more
35%
level
25%
Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
40%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Borac Šajkaš 2–1 Tekstilac Odžaci

Borac Šajkaš beat Tekstilac Odžaci 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Borac Šajkaš in Šajkaš.