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Borac Šajkaš vs 1. Maj Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Šajkaš
Borac Šajkaš
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
9/17/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Stadion Borac Šajkaš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Borac Šajkaš50%
×Draw25%
1. Maj Ruma25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Šajkaš
1.61
1. Maj Ruma
1.07

Borac Šajkaš creates 50% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 72 away

creates per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.51
1. Maj Ruma
1.06

allows per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.08
1. Maj Ruma
1.72

finishing

Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par
1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Šajkaš ↓

1. Maj Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Borac Šajkaš or draw
75%
Borac Šajkaš or 1. Maj Ruma
75%
Draw or 1. Maj Ruma
50%

Winning margin

Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+
26%
1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals
80%
Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals
48%
Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals
22%
1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
66%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
29%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)
66%
1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Šajkaš at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Šajkaš attack 1.51 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.61

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Borac Šajkaš scores more
50%
level
25%
1. Maj Ruma scores more
25%

Borac Šajkaš at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Borac Šajkaš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Borac Šajkaš 0–2 1. Maj Ruma

1. Maj Ruma beat Borac Šajkaš 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Borac Šajkaš in Šajkaš.