1. Maj Ruma 1–0 Borac Šajkaš: Result & Stats

1. Maj Ruma

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Borac Šajkaš

4/6/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 21Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

1. Maj Ruma48%

×Draw27%

Borac Šajkaš25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. Maj RumaExpected goals in this matchBorac Šajkaš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.92

1. Maj Ruma

1.41

Borac Šajkaš

0.92

1. Maj Ruma creates 53% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 60 away

1.25

creates per match

0.93

0.90

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma

1.25

Borac Šajkaš

0.93

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma

0.90

Borac Šajkaš

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Borac Šajkaš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw

75%

1. Maj Ruma or Borac Šajkaš

73%

Draw or Borac Šajkaš

52%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+

24%

Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals

76%

1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals

41%

1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals

17%

Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals

60%

Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals

23%

Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)

66%

Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Borac Šajkaš away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Borac Šajkaš attack 0.93 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more

48%

level

27%

Borac Šajkaš scores more

25%

1. Maj Ruma at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff