Borac Cacak 1–1 Kabel Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Borac Cacak

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kabel Novi Sad

A. Ratković 20'

S. Novaković 75'

4/11/2021

Prva Liga · Round 27Stadion Borca kraj Morave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Borac Cacak46%

×Draw29%

Kabel Novi Sad26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac CacakExpected goals in this matchKabel Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.89

Borac Cacak

1.29

Kabel Novi Sad

0.89

Borac Cacak creates 45% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 71 away

1.18

creates per match

0.90

0.88

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Borac Cacak

1.18

Kabel Novi Sad

0.90

allows per match

Borac Cacak

0.88

Kabel Novi Sad

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Cacak ↓

Kabel Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Borac Cacak or draw

74%

Borac Cacak or Kabel Novi Sad

71%

Draw or Kabel Novi Sad

54%

Winning margin

Borac Cacak wins by 2+

21%

Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Borac Cacak 1+ goals

72%

Borac Cacak 2+ goals

37%

Borac Cacak 3+ goals

14%

Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals

59%

Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals

22%

Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)

64%

Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Cacak at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 73 matches

Kabel Novi Sad away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Cacak attack 1.18 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.90 + Borac Cacak defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Borac Cacak scores more

46%

level

29%

Kabel Novi Sad scores more

26%

Borac Cacak at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

A. Ratković

46'

S. Novaković← S. Petrović

46'

V. Radočaj← V. Bogdanović

61'

S. Urošević← J. Bempah

71'

N. Milošević← M. Jeremić

75'

S. Novaković

83'

I. Jeličić← Z. Karać

85'

P. Ilić← F. Bajić

Borac

Kabel

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: V. Stanisavljević

61'▲S. Urošević←▼J. Bempah

71'▲N. Milošević←▼M. Jeremić

85'▲P. Ilić←▼F. Bajić

Borac Cacak substitutes

UroševićMiloševićIlić

Manager: Z. Vasiljević

46'▲S. Novaković←▼S. Petrović

46'▲V. Radočaj←▼V. Bogdanović

83'▲I. Jeličić←▼Z. Karać

Kabel Novi Sad substitutes

NovakovićRadočajJeličić