Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 0–4 Albion Rovers

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Albion Rovers

1/7/2023

League Two · Round 20New Dundas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic45%

×Draw25%

Albion Rovers30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.23

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.58

Albion Rovers

1.23

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic creates 28% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 80 away

1.36

creates per match

1.18

1.29

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.36

Albion Rovers

1.18

allows per match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.29

Albion Rovers

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic ↓

Albion Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic or draw

70%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic or Albion Rovers

75%

Draw or Albion Rovers

55%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+

23%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals

79%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals

47%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals

21%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

71%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

35%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)

60%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 1.36 + Albion Rovers defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

Albion Rovers attack 1.18 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more

45%

level

25%

Albion Rovers scores more

30%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff