Albion Rovers 2–1 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Albion Rovers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

10/8/2022

League Two · Round 10The Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Albion Rovers38%

×Draw27%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion RoversExpected goals in this matchBonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.27

Albion Rovers

1.31

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 56 away

1.05

creates per match

0.93

1.60

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Albion Rovers

1.05

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

0.93

allows per match

Albion Rovers

1.60

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw

64%

Albion Rovers or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

73%

Draw or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

62%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

73%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

38%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

14%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals

72%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals

36%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

51%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.60 · 78 matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 1.05 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 0.93 + Albion Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Albion Rovers scores more

38%

level

27%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more

36%

Albion Rovers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Albion Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff