Bóng đá Huế 1–0 Dong Thap: Result & Stats

Bóng đá Huế

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dong Thap

12/16/2023

V.League 2 · Round 7Sân vận động Tự Do

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bóng đá Huế47%

×Draw30%

Dong Thap23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bóng đá HuếExpected goals in this matchDong Thap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.75

Bóng đá Huế

1.22

Dong Thap

0.75

Bóng đá Huế creates 63% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 40 away

1.06

creates per match

0.60

0.90

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bóng đá Huế

1.06

Dong Thap

0.60

allows per match

Bóng đá Huế

0.90

Dong Thap

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Dong Thap+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bóng đá Huế ↓

Dong Thap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bóng đá Huế or draw

77%

Bóng đá Huế or Dong Thap

70%

Draw or Dong Thap

53%

Winning margin

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+

21%

Dong Thap wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals

70%

Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals

34%

Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals

12%

Dong Thap 1+ goals

53%

Dong Thap 2+ goals

17%

Dong Thap 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)

67%

Dong Thap (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bóng đá Huế at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Dong Thap away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bóng đá Huế attack 1.06 + Dong Thap defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dong Thap attack 0.60 + Bóng đá Huế defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bóng đá Huế scores more

47%

level

30%

Dong Thap scores more

23%

Bóng đá Huế at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bóng đá Huế will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff