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Bóng đá Huế vs Binh Thuan — V.League 2 2020

Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Binh Thuan
Binh Thuan
8/20/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 17Sân vận động Tự Do

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bóng đá Huế53%
×Draw24%
Binh Thuan23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bóng đá Huế
1.75
Binh Thuan
1.06

Bóng đá Huế creates 65% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bóng đá Huế
1.06
Binh Thuan
1.22

allows per match

Bóng đá Huế
0.90
Binh Thuan
2.44

finishing

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par
Binh Thuan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bóng đá Huế ↓

Binh Thuan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bóng đá Huế or draw
77%
Bóng đá Huế or Binh Thuan
76%
Draw or Binh Thuan
47%

Winning margin

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
30%
Binh Thuan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
83%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
52%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
25%
Binh Thuan 1+ goals
65%
Binh Thuan 2+ goals
29%
Binh Thuan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
70%
Binh Thuan (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bóng đá Huế at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Binh Thuan away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bóng đá Huế attack 1.06 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.75

Binh Thuan attack 1.22 + Bóng đá Huế defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bóng đá Huế scores more
53%
level
24%
Binh Thuan scores more
23%

Bóng đá Huế at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bóng đá Huế will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Bóng đá Huế 7–0 Binh Thuan

Bóng đá Huế beat Binh Thuan 7-0 in V.League 2 on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Tự Do in Hue.