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Binh Thuan vs Bóng đá Huế — V.League 2 2020

Binh Thuan
Binh Thuan
CANC
09:00
Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
12/2/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 5Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Binh Thuan33%
×Draw23%
Bóng đá Huế43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Thuan
1.46
Bóng đá Huế
1.70

Bóng đá Huế creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 51 away

creates per match

Binh Thuan
1.33
Bóng đá Huế
0.96

allows per match

Binh Thuan
2.44
Bóng đá Huế
1.59

finishing

Binh Thuan+0.00on par
Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Thuan ↓

Bóng đá Huế →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Binh Thuan or draw
57%
Binh Thuan or Bóng đá Huế
77%
Draw or Bóng đá Huế
67%

Winning margin

Binh Thuan wins by 2+
15%
Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Binh Thuan 1+ goals
77%
Binh Thuan 2+ goals
43%
Binh Thuan 3+ goals
18%
Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
82%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
51%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Binh Thuan (draw refunded)
43%
Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Thuan at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Bóng đá Huế away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Thuan attack 1.33 + Bóng đá Huế defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.96 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Binh Thuan scores more
33%
level
23%
Bóng đá Huế scores more
43%

Bóng đá Huế at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bóng đá Huế will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Binh Thuan host Bóng đá Huế

December 2, 2023: Binh Thuan take on Bóng đá Huế in V.League 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Binh Thuan host Bóng đá Huế at Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.